Recent elections in the South Bay continue to show that late returns have favored progressive, labor-backed candidates and measures. This last Primary Election was no exception.
The late returns in the hotly contested Santa Clara County District 4 Supervisor race decided the outcome of that race. With Susan Ellenberg advancing to the runoff, Election Day left Labor-endorsed San Jose Councilmember Don Rocha a few hundred votes behind Chamber- backed Pierluigi Oliverio. It was not until the bulk of the late returns were counted that the gap between Rocha and Oliverio closed. With almost every update of the late returns, Rocha inched closer to Oliverio and finally surpassed him, securing a spot in the runoff by more than 700 votes.
The 2016 election for Assembly District 27 pitted Labor-backed Ash Kalra against Chamber-backed Madison Nguyen in one of the most expensive and closely watched races in the state. Kalra, who came in second in the Primary election, was down about 2 percentage points on Election Day. As late returns were counted, Kalra closed in on his opponent and ultimately won the seat by more than 5,000 votes.
2016 also had labor-backed Sylvia Arenas and Chamber-backed Jimmy Nguyen in a neck and neck race for San Jose City Council’s District 8 seat. Since Election Day, the margin between Arenas and Nguyen had been tight, but after two weeks of counting and the last votes being processed, Arenas earned her a place on the City Council.
In addition, late returns further increased the victory percentages for two labor-backed, progressive measures, Measure YY in San Jose Unified and Measure A in Santa Clara County. Measure YY and Measure A, the Affordable Housing Bond, each gained nearly two percentage points thanks to late returns.
It is expected that this year’s November election will see a similar trend, giving progressive candidates and measures an electoral advantage at the end of campaign season.
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