San Jose By The Numbers

The Registrar of Voters recently reported numbers from the June 3 Primary and if you’re a political junky (and we know that you are) they’re pretty interesting. The big takeaway is that Mayoral candidate Sam Liccardo is in trouble.

Republican turnout was roughly 4 percentage points higher than Democrats and almost 14 points higher than DTS voters. Why is this trouble for Liccardo? Democrats turn out in higher numbers in general elections while Republicans have much less room to grow and therefore won’t have as much impact in November as they did in June. This is trouble for Sam who ran to the right just to make the general election. He can try to tack back to the center, but he’s already so aligned with Republican millionaires who gave him big checks, that will be difficult.

Turning to another demographic, it’s an old campaign adage that older voters turnout in higher numbers. It holds true in the primary, with the over sixty-five crowd comprising more than a third of the electorate by themselves. To put that in perspective, the share of voters over sixty-five is three times the turnout of eighteen to thirty-five year olds, combined.

This, too, spells trouble for Liccardo. The Survey USA poll showed that the only demographic group where he had an advantage was young voters, who tend not to turn out in large numbers. The Survey USA also showed that Dave Cortese had an advantage over Liccardo with Asian and Latino voters, and their percentage of the vote will only increase in the fall. Liccardo’s base is white, Republican and young. He will have to expand it if he wants to go back to work on the 18th floor, and that will be very difficult.

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