Not All Polls Are Created Equal

Just two more weeks until the election for San Jose Mayor and polls surveying who voters are supporting are popping up like gofers on a golf course. Which ones do you trust?
The latest poll results released by the Sam Liccardo campaign show he’s leading County Supervisor Dave Cortese by a few points. But consider the source: Public Policy Polling, out of Raleigh, North Carolina. Apparently, Liccardo’s handlers thought it was time to drop California pollster Jim Moore, who’s surveys showed Liccardo running behind, and go with an out of state organization with a reputation for swinging results the way they want them to look. 
Nationally recognized and respected political analyst Nate Silver tweeted about PPP’s work this way:

 

 

Journalist Nate Cohn writes in the New Republic:
After examining PPP’s polls from 2012 and conducting a lengthy exchange with PPP’s director, I’ve found that PPP withheld controversial elements of its methodology, to the extent it even has one, and treated its data inconsistently…The end result is unscientific and unsettling.
There have been two recent polls showing Dave Cortese leading the race for Mayor by a significant margin, the latest of which shows a 12 point lead. That poll was done by a reputable pollster, not PPP.

 

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