Recent polls show Dave Cortese ahead in the San Jose Mayor’s race by eight to 12 points. The lead is actually larger, statistically, because many in both polls who declare themselves “undecided” simply won’t vote. That makes the number of people his opponent, Sam Liccardo, can “convince” to move into his column less than it appears on paper.
But going through the numbers, utilizing the most favorable poll to Liccardo, it is clear why Cortese is winning. Cortese’s base of support is much more motivated to go to the polls. Union households support him 56% to 19%, Democrats support him 2-1 and he has an 11 point lead among women and a 32% lead among Latino’s–and that is in the most favorable poll for Liccardo. Short and sweet, there are just not enough white, male republicans in San Jose for Liccardo to win.
Even the white, male republicans are suspect. Recently, a friend who would ordinarily be in the Liccardo camp said he was voting for Cortese. When asked why, he replied that he wanted police to show up at his door if he needed them. Which brings us to the other big number coming out of the poll; by a whopping 50% to 14%, people who believe crime is the number one issue support Cortese.
This, more than any other information, is why Cortese is leading. The San Jose Mayor’s race is about who can build a relationship with our public safety employees. The toxic nature of Measure B was a short-term winner among the populace. When it was gutted by the courts and its effects on the city were seen by the public, it became an albatross around the neck of Liccardo.
The electorate loves their public safety officers, both police and fire. Nobody begrudges them a decent living and a healthy retirement. While the public is aware that the pension costs must be addressed, as is Cortese, the approach taken by every other public entity from the State of California to San Francisco did not cause the kind of rupture of morale that San Jose has had to endure. Nobody is fleeing the Highway Patrol.
For Liccardo, the vote he took to support Measure B is mind-numbing. He is a talented individual and a gifted lawyer. He knew, when he voted, that Measure B would be struck down by the courts. He may not have anticipated that property crime would soar, but he had to be aware that San Jose would lose many police officers as a result.
So if you are worried about crime and want more police, which seems to be the sole focus of the entire Mayor’s race; you will naturally be voting for Cortese. It is self-interest in the purest sense; for when faced with criminal activity, it is important that when you call, there are actual police officers there to protect us.
Rich Robinson is a political strategist and communications consultant.
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