Manh Nguyen Wins SJ Council Seat

Here are some big takeaways from Manh Nguyen’s victory over Tim Orozco in yesterday’s San Jose City Council election:

• Everyone knows that low turnout elections favor more conservative candidates; this was a low turnout election, and Nguyen was the more conservative candidate.  However, the most important factor in this race was not ideology.  It was the Vietnamese vote.  Vietnamese voters constitute 19% of the registered vote, but 32% of the voters who cast ballots, and they almost all voted for Manh Nguyen.  Nguyen’s campaign did an excellent job of turning out his base.
• Results from the primary indicated that Tim Orozco was stronger than Nguyen in the non-Vietnamese electorate, but that was not enough to make up for Nguyen’s overwhelming advantage with Vietnamese voters.
• Turnout among white voters was close to overall turnout.  Turnout among Latino voters was abysmal.  Latinos constitute 14% of the registered vote, but only 8% of the voters who cast ballots.  This is the second election in a row in which low Latino turnout cost the more progressive candidate the election.
• The size and composition of the electorate was the most important factor in the outcome.  Nguyen raised far more money than Orozco, but given Nguyen’s margin of victory, it seems unlikely that the outcome would have changed even if Orozco had raised a lot more.

As we’ve seen in presidential election years, a large turnout creates opportunities for progressive candidates and progressive reform.  So before anyone gets too happy or too sad about the outcome of yesterday’s special election, they should remember that 2016 will be a whole new ballgame.

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